【公募基金】地缘关税扰动并存，市场结构趋势延续——公募基金指数跟踪周报（2026.02.09-2026.02.13）

Investment Insights - The equity market showed some heat before the Spring Festival holiday (February 9-13, 2026), with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.36%, the CSI 500 up by 1.88%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.22%. However, market sentiment remained restrained, and trading volume did not effectively expand, staying around 2 trillion [3][5][6] - The holiday period introduced uncertainties due to the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and the Middle East situation, impacting market dynamics. The U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations, with core PCE inflation rising to 3%, and the Fed's FOMC minutes indicated a cautious stance on further rate cuts, reducing optimistic expectations for monetary easing [4][6] - Domestic consumption data during the holiday was mixed, with travel traffic reaching a historical high, indicating a robust service economy focused on tourism. However, there was internal structural differentiation, with traditional sectors like film and real estate underperforming, while sectors like travel and smart wearable devices thrived [5][6] Fixed Income Market Insights - The bond market performed well in the week leading up to the Spring Festival (February 9-14, 2026), with the 1-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.62 basis points to 1.31%, the 10-year yield down by 2.03 basis points to 1.79%, and the 30-year yield down by 0.50 basis points to 2.25%. This performance was driven by pre-holiday demand for bond allocation [7][8] - There are mixed factors in the bond market, with potential short-term liquidity pressure due to the upcoming reverse repos. However, historical trends suggest that the central bank may maintain a supportive stance, making liquidity disturbances likely manageable [2][7] - The current 10-year government bond yield has fallen below 1.8%, indicating increased resistance to further declines. The market may experience reduced demand for bond purchases post-holiday, especially with the upcoming Two Sessions and a low probability of rate cuts [2][7] Sector Performance - The technology and media sectors were the main rebound hotspots, with a notable recovery in technology stocks. The market's main narrative continues to revolve around AI developments, with specific sectors like power generation and gas turbines seeing collective gains [3][6] - The upcoming Two Sessions on March 4 is expected to finalize the detailed planning for the 14th Five-Year Plan, which may solidify positive policy expectations for technology growth. However, there is a caution against overextending growth expectations, which could lead to a market correction [6][7]