投资前瞻：MWC 2026将开幕，锡价创年内新高

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for February is expected to be released on March 4, with January's manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for January was 49.4%, also down by 0.8 percentage points [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index for January was 49.8%, reflecting a decline of 0.9 percentage points [1] Monetary Policy - A total of 15,250 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature this week, with specific maturities on different days [2] Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for February is set to be released on March 6, along with the unemployment rate and January retail sales data [3] Geopolitical Events - Recent explosions in Tehran, Iran, attributed to U.S. and Israeli attacks, have led to major oil companies suspending oil and fuel transport through the Strait of Hormuz, impacting international oil prices [4] - The potential for prolonged conflict in the Persian Gulf could lead to sustained high oil prices, while a quick resolution may result in a price drop [4] Commodity Prices - Tin prices have surged to new highs in 2026, driven by demand from AI, new energy, and semiconductor sectors, with AI servers using 2-3 times more tin than traditional models [6] - The average price increase for small metals during the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion periods has ranged from 40% to 88% [6] Technology Developments - Deep Seek is expected to launch its new flagship AI model, Deep Seek V4, which will support multi-modal interactions [7] - Alibaba's AI assistant, Qianwen, will introduce AI glasses globally, with a launch event at the Mobile World Congress [8][9] Corporate Earnings - Zhongji Xuchuang reported a net profit of 10.799 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 108.81% [12] - Cambrian Technology achieved a net profit of 2.059 billion yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [13] - Aibisen's net profit for 2025 was 254 million yuan, up 117.2% year-on-year [14] Stock Market Activity - A total of 30 companies will have their restricted shares released this week, amounting to 1.406 billion shares with a total market value of 36.277 billion yuan [16] - The peak of share unlocks is on March 2, with 14 companies releasing shares worth a combined 21.617 billion yuan [19] Market Outlook - Zhongyuan Securities predicts a wide-ranging fluctuation and structural differentiation in the market, supported by increased foreign investment in A-shares [24] - Huaxi Securities anticipates a "red envelope market" driven by positive developments in technology sectors [25] - Xibu Securities continues to favor rare earth and tungsten sectors, expecting a new price cycle due to supply constraints and demand upgrades [28]