我国债务问题的一些新挑战及应对之策｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - China's debt risk is overall controllable, but new challenges such as rising debt scale and macro leverage ratio, slowing nominal economic growth, land finance transformation, changes in financial risk preferences, and mismatched debt-asset durations need attention [2][3]. Debt Scale and Macro Leverage - Since the 2008 global financial crisis, China's debt scale has continuously expanded, with the macro leverage ratio rising significantly. As of Q3 2025, the total debt of non-financial sectors in China approached 420 trillion yuan, accounting for 302.3% of GDP, a substantial increase of 161.9 percentage points from 140.4% in Q3 2008, with an average annual growth rate of 9.5 percentage points [5]. - In comparison, global macro leverage increased from 179.2% to 241.2% during the same period, with an average annual growth rate of 3.6 percentage points [5]. Sectoral Analysis of Debt - Non-financial enterprises and local governments are the main carriers of debt expansion in China, accounting for 70% of the total debt stock as of Q3 2025 [6]. - Local government explicit debt was 53.7 trillion yuan (approximately 38.7% of GDP), but including interest-bearing liabilities of financing platforms significantly increases the broad local government debt scale [7]. Structural Debt Risks - Local government debt risks are concentrated in regions with rapid debt expansion, sluggish fiscal revenue growth, and high reliance on financing platforms. While overall local government debt has asset and institutional support, structural issues are prominent [8]. - There is a clear regional differentiation in local debt, with coastal and core urban areas having larger debt but stronger economic foundations, while central and western regions face rising debt rates and repayment pressures due to slower fiscal revenue growth [8]. New Challenges for Debt "Gray Rhino" - The debt "gray rhino" issue has persisted for a long time, with rising debt scale and macro leverage not evolving into systemic risks due to sustained economic growth and favorable fiscal policies. However, the macro environment is changing, presenting new challenges [10]. - The nominal growth center is shifting downward, reducing the space for "growth-based debt" strategies. The potential for rapid expansion of nominal GDP is diminishing, complicating traditional debt management approaches [10][11]. - The land finance model is becoming unsustainable, with land transfer revenues declining significantly, affecting local governments' ability to service debt. This shift is not merely cyclical but structural, influenced by demographic changes and housing demand saturation [11]. - Financial institutions are becoming more cautious in risk pricing for local governments and financing platforms, leading to tighter debt adjustment processes and increased liquidity risks [11].