和讯·2026-03-02 09:35Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impacts of the recent U.S.-Israel military strikes on Iran, emphasizing the importance of the conflict's duration on global asset prices and market behavior [4][5]. Market Reactions - Following the military strikes, global asset markets exhibited significant volatility, with a notable increase in risk-averse sentiment leading to rapid price adjustments [4]. - The initial market reaction is characterized by a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" pattern, where asset prices fluctuate sharply before stabilizing or reversing [4]. Scenario Analysis - Two scenarios are presented regarding the conflict's duration: 1. Short-term Conflict: This scenario suggests that the U.S.-Israel strikes will be limited to initial airstrikes, with Iran retaliating without escalating to a ground war. The market is expected to digest this situation within 1 to 2 weeks, with oil and gold prices initially spiking before stabilizing [5][6]. 2. Prolonged Conflict: In this scenario, the conflict lasts for several months, leading to a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and significant disruptions in global energy supply. This would shift market dynamics towards a "stagflation trading" environment, with prolonged high oil prices and persistent inflationary pressures [8][10]. Asset Price Predictions - Oil prices are expected to be highly sensitive to geopolitical tensions, with predictions of a short-term increase due to the conflict. However, if the situation escalates, prices could rise significantly [6][7]. - Gold is anticipated to experience a similar pattern, with initial price increases followed by a retreat as market focus shifts back to interest rate dynamics [8]. - The stock market, particularly A-shares, may face initial pressure but could recover if the conflict does not escalate further [8]. Key Observations - The article highlights three critical signals to monitor: whether Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz, if Iran will launch missile attacks on Israel, and whether the U.S. and Israel will conduct further large-scale airstrikes [10]. - The potential for a long-term conflict could lead to a complete restructuring of asset allocations in the market, with strategic assets like energy, gold, and defense stocks gaining value [9][10].