国泰海通｜化工：PVC长期格局向好，优势企业有望充分受益

Group 1 - The PVC market is expected to continue its downward trend through 2025, with the chlor-alkali industry benefiting from a cost advantage due to the alkali supplementing chlorine strategy [1] - The concentration of the PVC industry is steadily increasing, with the annual capacity concentration (CR10) projected to rise from 35.59% in 2021 to 40.17% in 2025 [1] - The chlor-alkali industry's capacity growth is slowing down, leading to clearer industry layouts and larger average scales for individual enterprises [1] Group 2 - The domestic PVC market has been in a prolonged downturn since the second half of 2022, with many production companies reporting losses in 2023 and an increase in loss-making companies expected in 2024 [1] - Over 1.3 million tons of PVC production capacity has been idled for more than a year [1] - The national "dual carbon" policies are guiding the industry, with a focus on energy transition and industrial upgrading as part of the strategy to achieve carbon peak goals [1] Group 3 - The calcium carbide method currently dominates the PVC industry in China, and the transition to mercury-free production is expected to accelerate [2] - The Minamata Convention on Mercury has expanded its control over mercury-containing products and processes, with the elimination timeline for mercury processes in PVC production becoming a focal point in recent negotiations [2] - China has successfully met the target of halving mercury use per unit of PVC product by 2020 compared to 2010, and further efforts will focus on developing mercury-free catalysts and enhancing policy support [2]