国泰海通 · 宏观聚焦｜中国居民财富：第三次历史“大迁徙”——“居民财富何处流”研究二

Core Viewpoint - Chinese residents' wealth has undergone two historical migrations, with the third migration currently underway, characterized by a shift towards "savings+" as the main trend, influenced by low interest rates and inflation expectations [2][6]. Group 1: First Historical Migration: "Savings Move" (1998–2018) - The period from 1990 to 1998 marked the initial stage of wealth accumulation and allocation, primarily through savings, with low exposure to risk assets [3][8]. - The housing reform in 1998 initiated the first migration, directing savings towards real estate and related assets, establishing real estate as a core component of residents' asset allocation [10][11]. - This migration can be divided into two phases: 1. From 1998 to 2008, real estate gained central importance in residents' balance sheets, driven by price appreciation expectations and the rise of related financial products [11][12]. 2. From 2008 to 2018, the rapid expansion of the asset management industry accelerated the flow of funds into real estate and related financial assets [3][12]. Group 2: Second Historical Migration: "Savings Return Home" (2018–2023) - The second migration began in 2018 as the real estate market entered a downturn, leading to a return of wealth from real estate and related financial products back to savings [4][17]. - During this period, annual new savings averaged approximately 12 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the previous norm of 4-5 trillion yuan [17]. - The decline in real estate prices and regulatory changes in the asset management sector contributed to the increased attractiveness of savings over real estate investments [18][17]. Group 3: Third Historical Migration: "Savings+" Era (Since 2023) - Since 2023, the growth of new savings has noticeably declined, with new savings dropping to 16.7 trillion yuan, indicating a loosening of the concentration in savings allocation [23][27]. - The driving factors include a relative decline in the attractiveness of savings rates and improvements in the relative returns of other risk assets, such as bonds and equities [26][27]. - The current migration reflects a structural rebalancing around actual returns, with "savings+" representing a broader wealth allocation concept that emphasizes stable returns while controlling for capital loss [27][28].