国泰海通 · 晨报260302｜宏观、非银

Macro Overview - The article identifies three historical "great migrations" of Chinese household wealth, with the first two occurring between 1998-2018 and 2018-2023, and the third migration beginning in 2023 [2][4][5]. First Historical Migration - The first migration, termed "moving deposits," occurred from 1998 to 2018, driven by the housing system reform in 1998, which led to a significant flow of deposits into real estate and related assets [3][9]. - This migration can be divided into two phases: 1. From 1998 to 2008, real estate established a core position in household balance sheets, with rising property prices attracting direct purchases and pushing up returns on related financial products [9]. 2. From 2008 to 2018, the asset management industry expanded rapidly, further accelerating the flow of funds into real estate and related financial assets [9]. Second Historical Migration - The second migration, termed "returning deposits," occurred from 2018 to 2023, as the real estate market entered a downturn, leading to decreased returns and increased risks associated with real estate investments [4][9]. - Regulatory changes, such as the new asset management regulations, contributed to a shift back to deposits, reflecting a decline in risk appetite among residents [4]. Third Historical Migration - The third migration, referred to as the "era of 'deposits +'," began in 2023, indicating a shift in wealth allocation strategies among residents [5]. - This migration is characterized by a reallocation of wealth towards financial products that offer stable returns while maintaining capital protection, rather than solely focusing on traditional deposits [9]. - The article emphasizes that this "deposits +" concept is not limited to specific financial products but represents a broader wealth allocation philosophy [9]. Investment Implications - The article suggests that the current trend of wealth migration may lead to increased interest in financial products that provide stable returns, especially in a low inflation environment [9]. - It highlights the importance of monitoring inflation expectations, as a significant rise could alter the direction of wealth allocation [9].