国泰海通 · 晨报260225｜宏观、策略

Macro - The article discusses the significant amount of "excess savings" in the market, estimated at 16 trillion yuan, which will face lower interest rates of 1.2%-1.5% by 2026, potentially triggering a shift of deposits to other assets [2] - The total amount of maturing deposits in 2026 is projected to be around 76-77 trillion yuan, with a notable seasonal peak in the first quarter, where approximately 32-34 trillion yuan will mature [2][4] - The year-on-year increase in maturing deposits from 2025 to 2026 is expected to be 9.6-10.8 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 14.4%-16.3%, which is lower than the 17.7% growth rate in 2025 [2] Pressure Analysis - Approximately 25 trillion yuan of high-interest deposits are set to mature, representing about 32% of the total maturing deposits, which is a key factor for renewal pressure [3] - The renewal rate for deposits maturing in 2025 is expected to remain resilient, with around 90% of deposits likely to be renewed despite lower interest rates [3] Core Contradiction - The focus for 2026 shifts from "whether to move" to "where to move," indicating a gradual and dispersed migration of deposits to other assets rather than a rapid shift [4] - Even with a hypothetical 10% outflow rate from the 77 trillion yuan in maturing deposits, this could significantly impact the pricing in equity and bond markets [4]