国泰海通 · 宏观聚焦｜有多少存款：可供“搬家”——“居民财富何处流”研究一

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the upcoming maturity of approximately 76-77 trillion yuan in residential time deposits in 2026, highlighting the potential for a shift in asset allocation as these deposits transition from high-interest rates above 3% to lower rates of 1.2%-1.5% [2][7][24]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2026, the total maturity of residential time deposits is estimated to be around 76-77 trillion yuan, marking a historical peak [11][24]. - The maturity pressure is expected to be seasonal, with approximately 32-34 trillion yuan maturing in the first quarter of 2026, indicating a "peak in the first quarter" characteristic [12][24]. - The increase in maturity volume from 2025 to 2026 is projected to be 9.6-10.8 trillion yuan, corresponding to a growth rate of 14.4%-16.3%, which is lower than the 17.7% growth rate observed in 2025 [16][24]. Group 2: High-Interest Deposits - Approximately 25 trillion yuan of the maturing deposits are high-interest deposits with a term of two years or more, constituting about 32% of the total maturity volume [3][20]. - The marginal increase in high-interest deposits maturing in 2026 is about 4.6 trillion yuan compared to 2025, indicating a gradual rather than sudden change [20][24]. - The experience from 2025 shows that despite facing re-pricing pressure, the renewal rate of deposits remained close to 90%, suggesting resilience in deposit behavior [3][26]. Group 3: Asset Reallocation - The focus of the market is shifting from "whether to renew" to "where to allocate" the funds post-maturity, with expectations that a portion of the maturing deposits will flow into other asset classes [4][30]. - The anticipated outflow rate of around 10-15% from the maturing deposits could significantly influence market pricing, especially in the stock and bond markets [4][30]. - The ongoing discussions around the reallocation of deposits and the implications for market liquidity and asset pricing are becoming increasingly relevant as the maturity date approaches [5][7].