国泰海通 · 晨报260224｜宏观、策略、固收、纺服

Macro - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under IEEPA were illegal, leading to a temporary increase in global import tariffs to 15% [1] - Japan's ruling party won a significant majority in the recent elections, with the Liberal Democratic Party securing 316 seats, exceeding market expectations [1] - Oil prices rose significantly during the Spring Festival due to escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions, while gold prices increased amid geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies [1] U.S. Economy - Despite a lower-than-expected GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025, U.S. consumer and investment resilience remains [2] - The PCE price index is expected to rebound, complicating the progress of inflation reduction, with some Federal Reserve officials discussing potential rate hikes [2] - The U.S. housing market showed signs of recovery as 30-year mortgage rates continued to decline, despite a drop in existing home sales due to cold weather [2] European Economy - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI improved significantly in February 2026, marking the first time it crossed the growth line since August 2025 [2] - The Sentix investor confidence index in the Eurozone also showed a notable rebound in February 2026 [2] Domestic Demand - China is shifting its economic focus towards domestic demand, marking a strategic transition from short-term policies to a long-term national strategy [5] - By 2024, final consumption expenditure is projected to account for approximately 56.6% of GDP, still below the levels of developed economies [5] - Key strategies for boosting domestic demand include investing in human capital, enhancing service consumption, and stabilizing real estate price expectations [5][6] Real Estate - The real estate sector has undergone significant adjustments, with sales and new construction areas dropping substantially [7] - Recent policy changes are positively impacting the real estate market, with improved financing policies and urban renewal initiatives [7] - The real estate sector is expected to stabilize, with valuation recovery underway [7] Industry Recommendations - The domestic demand-related sectors are currently undervalued, with expectations of profit stabilization due to ongoing policies [8] - Recommendations include investing in quality real estate companies with low price-to-book ratios, as well as sectors like building materials, chemicals, and consumer services [8] Consumer Market - The Spring Festival saw a significant increase in consumer spending, with key retail and catering enterprises reporting a 10.6% increase in sales compared to the previous year [12] - Service consumption, including hotel bookings and dining reservations, experienced substantial growth during the holiday period [12] Cotton Market - U.S. cotton futures showed a slight rebound during the Spring Festival, supported by positive marginal changes in supply and demand [17] - Weekly export data for U.S. cotton showed a significant increase, with net sales reaching a new high for the marketing year [18] - The AOF report indicated a tightening global cotton supply-demand balance for the 2026/27 season, with expected reductions in production and increases in exports [19]