［3月1日］美股指数估值数据（非美股市场上涨；美债涨跌受啥影响；全球指数星级更新）

Global Stock Market Overview - The global stock market experienced a slight decline this week, with minimal volatility [1] - The US stock market saw a downturn [2] - Non-US stock markets overall increased [3] - The A-share market rose this week, with its rating returning to 3.7 stars, close to the beginning of the year [4] - The Hong Kong stock market was relatively sluggish, showing an overall decline [6] Bond Market Insights - Recently, US dollar bonds have generally risen, reaching a three-year high [7] - The short-term fluctuations in bonds are significantly influenced by interest rate trends [8] - During interest rate hike cycles, bond prices tend to decline, while during rate cut cycles, bond prices generally rise [10] - From 2021 to 2023, the US dollar interest rate hike cycle led to the largest bear market for long-term US dollar bonds since the 2008 financial crisis [11] - Consequently, US dollar bonds are currently undervalued at around 5 stars, with the 10-year US Treasury yield between 4-5% [12] - As of September 2024, the Federal Reserve is expected to enter a rate cut cycle, leading to a gradual increase in US dollar bonds [13][14] - However, the previous declines from 2021 to 2023 have not yet been fully recovered [15] Currency Impact on Investment - There is a discrepancy between the rising US dollar bonds and the net asset values of domestic US dollar bond funds, which have not seen significant increases recently due to the appreciation of the RMB against the USD [16] - If the fund net values are denominated in USD, they have generally increased, but when denominated in RMB, they reflect the appreciation of the RMB against the USD [18] - The dollar interest rate hike cycle is often accompanied by an appreciation of the dollar, while the rate cut cycle tends to lead to depreciation [19] - Therefore, investments in US stocks and bonds are also affected by currency fluctuations [21] - It is advisable for households planning to allocate USD assets to invest in US dollar bonds to mitigate currency risk [22] Global Stock Market Valuation - A star rating chart for the global stock market indicates that in 2018, 2020, and 2022, the market was undervalued at 4-5 stars [25] - After a significant drop in early April 2025, the global stock market rating fell to 4.1-4.2 stars, followed by a rebound in the second to fourth quarters, stabilizing around 2.9 stars by February 2026 [25] Investment Opportunities - There are global stock index funds available in overseas markets, with a total scale exceeding one trillion USD, although there are currently no such funds available in mainland China [27] - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across US, UK, Hong Kong, and A-share index funds to track the global stock market [28] New Publication - The company has released a new book titled "Dividend Index Fund Investment Guide," which quickly became a bestseller on major platforms [33] - This book aims to address common questions about dividend-related investment products and is designed to be easily digestible for readers with no prior knowledge [33]