【广发宏观陈礼清】本轮人民币升值：驱动和后续趋势的再理解

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Chinese Yuan (RMB) has maintained an appreciation trend for five consecutive months, with a rapid appreciation rate in the recent quarter, returning to the "6" era since the beginning of 2026. As of February 25, the offshore RMB exchange rate (USDCNH) reached 6.8588, showing strong performance compared to the US dollar, second only to the Australian dollar [1][7][35] - The RMB's appreciation can be divided into three phases: the "trend-following" phase (November 1 to December 14, 2025), the "self-driven" phase (December 15, 2025, to January 28, 2026), and the "multi-factor resonance" phase (from January 28, 2026, to present). The correlation coefficient between the offshore RMB exchange rate and the US dollar index has varied significantly across these phases [10][12][42] Group 2 - The driving factors behind the RMB's appreciation since 2026 include: (1) a renewed narrative of de-dollarization, leading to a collective rise of non-USD currencies; (2) a significant increase in the proportion of trade surplus converted into actual receipts, reaching approximately 77.6%, the highest in nearly a decade; (3) a rebound in domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) and a strong start in the stock market [2][12][55][61] - Seasonal factors are expected to stabilize the RMB post-Spring Festival, including a shift towards a weaker central parity since late January, a decline in seasonal settlement demand, and a potential return to mean volatility after a period of unilateral appreciation [3][18][67] Group 3 - The RMB's appreciation is supported by nominal growth improvements, with stable credit data and rising inflation indicators. The estimated remaining amount for settlement from 2022 to 2026 is between $725 billion and $1.14 trillion, with a significant portion of holdings in a "floating loss" state, indicating that the current settlement trend may not be short-term [4][24][26] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to maintain a slight appreciation trend throughout 2026, with a projected year-end range of 6.85 to 6.87. This is part of a new appreciation cycle driven by improvements in China's nominal growth and technological breakthroughs [5][28][32]