【广发宏观郭磊】从政策框架看资产配置的均衡化

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key points from the Central Political Bureau meeting on February 27, emphasizing a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to stabilize market expectations regarding macroeconomic policies. It highlights the importance of the upcoming government work report and the 15th Five-Year Plan draft, which will provide mid-term guidance for economic development [6][7]. Group 1: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The meeting reiterated the need for a "more proactive" fiscal policy and "moderately loose" monetary policy, aiming to stabilize market expectations regarding macroeconomic policies. It is anticipated that the narrow and broad deficit rates will remain at high levels similar to those in 2025 [6][7]. - The government work report will clarify the deficit rate and other important indicators related to broad fiscal policy, which are expected to be consistent with the high levels seen in 2025 [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Framework - The meeting emphasized the policy framework of "expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, improving increment, and revitalizing stock," which was introduced at the end of last year. This framework aims to address the prominent issue of "strong supply but weak demand" and the challenges of transitioning from old to new growth drivers [8][9]. - "Expanding domestic demand" will primarily rely on boosting consumption and increasing investment, which corresponds to consumer and cyclical assets. Specific actions include implementing special measures to stimulate consumption and optimizing the management of local government special bonds to increase project construction funding [9][10]. Group 3: Supply Optimization and New Growth Drivers - "Optimizing supply" will focus on reducing internal competition and improving competitive order, which is expected to benefit certain midstream and upstream industries. The meeting outlined measures to regulate capacity, enforce standards, and combat unfair competition [11][12]. - "Improving increment" will depend on nurturing new growth drivers, particularly in emerging and future industries such as integrated circuits, aerospace, and biomedicine. The government work report and the 15th Five-Year Plan will provide further insights into specific policy benefits [12][13]. Group 4: Revitalizing Existing Assets - "Revitalizing stock" will involve restructuring balance sheets, including urban renewal and optimizing the use of state-owned assets. The meeting highlighted the need to compile a macro asset balance sheet and optimize the structure of assets and liabilities [14][15]. - The focus on expanding domestic demand and technological innovation will be key themes in the upcoming government work report, indicating a balanced approach to asset allocation across consumer, cyclical, and technology assets [15].