【广发宏观团队】怎么看所谓2028年“全球智能危机”的观点

Group 1 - The report "2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" by Citrini Research suggests that AI will enhance efficiency but also lead to job displacement, resulting in reduced consumption and declining corporate profits, creating a "no-brake mechanism" cycle of human intelligence replacement [1] - The notion of "technological displacement of jobs" has been a recurring theme in every technological revolution, similar to the views expressed during the internet revolution 30 years ago [2] - Historical perspectives indicate that technological advancements generally support the "employment neutrality" hypothesis, as new job opportunities arise alongside job displacement [5] Group 2 - Global asset narratives are shifting, with AI crisis theories, geopolitical premiums, and "re-inflation" expectations driving fluctuations in US stocks and bonds [6] - The global stock market is showing a pattern of "strong emerging markets, weak US stocks," with US stocks facing increased risk aversion and concerns over AI disruption and banking credit risks [6] - The commodity market is experiencing a "copper and gold lead, energy and chemicals strong, black metals moderate" trend, influenced by geopolitical risk premiums and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [8] Group 3 - The US Supreme Court's ruling on IEEPA tariffs has significant implications for trade policy, reducing the effective tariff rate from 16% to 13.7% [15] - The ruling may lead to a complex and lengthy refund process for tariffs previously collected under IEEPA, affecting over 300,000 importers [16] - The market is now focused on the tools and duration of future tariffs, with potential implications for various industries depending on their exposure to these tariffs [18]