CPO，终于要来了？

Core Insights - The article discusses the transition of AI infrastructure competition from chip manufacturing to the efficiency of chip interconnections, highlighting the emergence of Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) as a critical industry focus [2][3] - CPO technology integrates high-speed optical engines with switching chips using advanced packaging techniques, aiming to address the limitations of traditional optical modules in terms of power consumption and bandwidth [6][9] Industry Trends - CPO is moving from a technical validation phase to early commercialization, with a projected global Datacom CPO market growth from under $70 million in 2024 to $8 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 120% [6][9] - The interconnection rate is rapidly evolving from 400G/800G to 1.6T, with expectations to exceed 3.2T by 2027, indicating that traditional architectures are nearing performance ceilings and CPO's large-scale application is inevitable [6][9] Company Performance - Lumentum reported a 65% year-over-year revenue increase to $665.5 million in Q2 FY2026, driven by strong demand in AI and cloud computing, with CPO business emerging as a core growth engine [11][12] - Coherent's Q2 FY2026 revenue reached $1.686 billion, a 17% increase, with data center and communication segments driving growth, particularly through CPO advancements [20][21] - Tower Semiconductor announced a record revenue of $440 million in Q4 2025, with significant investments in silicon photonics to increase capacity fivefold by Q4 2026, indicating strong demand in the CPO market [28][29] Market Dynamics - The demand for CPO is evidenced by Lumentum's full order books and capacity constraints, with plans for further capacity expansion to meet increasing customer needs [14][31] - Coherent secured a substantial CPO order from a leading AI data center client, highlighting the strong market demand and the company's competitive advantage in high-power continuous wave laser technology [24][26] - Tower's silicon photonics capacity is largely pre-sold through customer commitments, indicating a robust market outlook and the urgency of expanding production capabilities [29][30] Future Outlook - CPO is expected to transition from initial deployment in horizontal scaling (Scale-Out) to broader applications in vertical scaling (Scale-Up), with significant market potential as traditional copper cables approach their performance limits [34][36] - The industry anticipates that CPO will gradually replace copper interconnections, with a projected market potential in the hundreds of billions of dollars, driven by AI infrastructure needs [31][36] - Despite current technological and market challenges, the trajectory for CPO indicates a clear path toward widespread adoption and integration into various applications beyond data centers [36][40]