【招银研究|行业点评】消费复苏结构分化，科技赋能焕新年俗——2026年春节消费观察

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Spring Festival consumption data shows a recovery in consumer spending, driven by factors such as an extended holiday, delayed demand release, and increased time for pre-holiday purchases [1][2]. Group 1: Spring Festival Consumption Trends - The average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year during the Spring Festival, with foot traffic and sales in monitored business districts rising by 6.7% and 7.5%, respectively [1]. - The consumption growth during the 2026 Spring Festival is higher compared to the 2025 Spring Festival, which saw a 4.1% increase in average daily sales [1]. - The "reverse Spring Festival" trend is notable, with many urban workers bringing their families to cities, leading to a significant increase in travel bookings and local consumption [2][3]. Group 2: Regional Consumption Performance - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai reported strong sales growth, with Beijing achieving sales of 84.5 billion yuan (up 12.4%) and Shanghai reaching 603.5 billion yuan (up 12.8%) [4]. - Consumption growth in midwestern provinces such as Hebei, Hubei, and Guangxi exceeded the national average, with increases of 9.3%, 11.6%, and 19%, respectively [4]. Group 3: Service vs. Goods Consumption - Service consumption outperformed goods consumption, with a notable increase in travel and entertainment spending during the holiday period [5]. - The total domestic travel expenditure reached 803.5 billion yuan, with an average spending of 1,348 yuan per person, reflecting a 9% increase compared to 2019 [5]. - While traditional goods consumption showed signs of weakness, certain categories like organic food and water-saving sanitary ware experienced significant growth [8]. Group 4: Impact of Technology on Consumption - The film market faced challenges during the Spring Festival, with box office revenues dropping by 39.5% year-on-year, indicating a shift in consumer habits towards digital entertainment [9]. - Technological advancements, particularly in robotics and AI, have significantly influenced consumer behavior, with a notable increase in online engagement and orders related to these technologies during the holiday [11].