春节假期海外四大要闻——海外周报第128期

Core Viewpoint - During the Spring Festival holiday, overseas markets were dominated by risk-averse trading due to Middle East geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding FOMC monetary policy. Major asset prices showed varied performances, with most global stock indices rising, while major currencies like the yen and pound experienced significant declines [2][4]. Group 1: Overseas Asset Performance - Global stock indices mostly rose, with the Korean Composite Index, French CAC40, and FTSE 100 leading the gains, increasing by 5.5%, 2.5%, and 2.3% respectively from February 16 to 20. The Hang Seng Index and Nikkei 225 fell by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively [4][14]. - Global 10-year government bond yields mostly declined, with Japanese, French, British, and Italian bonds decreasing by 6.1bps, 3.8bps, 2.7bps, and 2.3bps respectively, while the 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 4.0bps [4][14]. - Most major commodities saw price increases, with Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil rising by 5.9% and 5.7% respectively during the same period [4][14]. - Among major currencies, the yen and pound experienced significant declines, falling by 1.5% and 1.3% respectively, while the US dollar index rose by 0.9% [4][14]. Group 2: Key News Events - The US-Iran crisis escalated, with indirect negotiations taking place in Geneva. The US is increasing military presence in the region, leading to a rise in oil prices, with WTI crude increasing from approximately $62.33 to $66.39, marking a 6.5% increase [5][25]. - The FOMC meeting minutes indicated a neutral but hawkish stance, with most members agreeing that current rates are appropriate. The market expects a potential rate cut of about 60 basis points later this year, reflecting a slight easing compared to previous expectations [6][30]. - The US Supreme Court ruled against Trump's large-scale tariffs, stating that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not authorize such actions. This decision led to a decrease in supply chain costs and a rise in the Nasdaq index by 0.90% [7][36]. - Japanese Prime Minister Kishi Sanae was re-elected, promoting a fiscal policy focused on significant tax cuts and public investment, which is expected to boost Japan's GDP growth forecast for 2026 [9][39].