申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟：2026年，聚焦“顺周期”新叙事与资金“再平衡”

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," representing a critical juncture for economic transformation and institutional reform, with a focus on breaking the cycle of stagnation through "anti-involution" and "expanding domestic demand" [2][3] Economic Outlook - In 2026, the economy is expected to enter a non-typical "recovery" phase, with nominal GDP recovery driving improvements in corporate profitability, while significant structural differentiation will persist across industries and companies [2] - Short-term expectations for the A-share market indicate a potential continuation of capital "rebalancing" under a "pro-cyclical" narrative, with funds likely flowing from low-yield, high-volatility bond markets to equity markets, leading to asset price revaluation [3] - Despite uncertainties in external trade, domestic policy tools are ample, and the economy is expected to demonstrate resilience, with capital markets reflecting not only quantitative growth but also qualitative improvements in profitability [3] Key Focus Areas for 2026 - Key areas for attention in 2026 include the construction of a unified national market, high-level opening-up, acceleration of green transformation, social security, and reforms in the fiscal and financial systems [4] - The construction of a unified market involves establishing foundational systems, market infrastructure, resource markets, government behavior standards, and regulatory enforcement, alongside expanding both domestic and international openness [4] - The green transformation will focus on energy-saving and carbon-reduction retrofitting in traditional high-energy-consuming industries, promoting low-carbon and efficient transitions through technological innovation and capacity replacement [4] Conclusion - As the starting point of the "15th Five-Year Plan," 2026 is positioned for significant advancements in service consumption upgrades, corporate profitability improvements, and the enhancement of domestic demand, all while maintaining a commitment to high-quality development and global competitiveness [4]