【申万宏源策略】美股金融股补跌，信用风险担忧几何？

Global Capital Market Review - The US Supreme Court ruled that US tariffs are illegal, but the Trump administration seeks to continue enforcement, while tensions between the US and Iran escalate, leading to rising oil prices. The US PPI for January exceeded expectations with a significant increase [1][5] - In fixed income, the 10Y US Treasury yield marginally decreased by 11 basis points to 3.97%, and the US dollar index fell by 0.10% [1][5] - In equity markets, the South Korean market led global equity markets, while the Hang Seng Tech index continued to decline [1][5] - In commodities, geopolitical risks drove gold and crude oil prices up by 3.31% and 1.00%, respectively [1][5] Focus on Financial Sector - Since the beginning of the year, US financial stocks have experienced significant pullbacks due to concerns over "AI consuming everything," with credit card intermediaries like American Express facing the most substantial declines [2][5] - The decline in financial stocks is primarily driven by future valuation concerns, while earnings expectations have not yet been revised downwards [2][5] - Current debt pressures in vulnerable companies and sectors are comparable to those seen in mid-2007, with the CDS of Oracle rising from 50 basis points to 150 basis points during its stock price halving, similar to the rise seen in Lehman Brothers [2][7] Credit Risk and Market Stability - The overall high-yield bond market in the US remains relatively stable, with a current high-yield bond spread of 2.98%, compared to a 5-year average of 3.92% [2][7] - The risk exposure of Business Development Companies (BDCs) to the software and services sector has reached historical highs, indicating a significant concentration of risk in this area [7][9] - The P/NAV of the S&P BDC index has dropped to 0.84, raising concerns about the actual risk exposure in the software sector [7][9] Global Fund Flows - In the past week, both foreign and domestic capital flowed into the Chinese stock market, with foreign capital inflows amounting to $25.9 billion and domestic inflows of $2.7 billion [3][9] - Global funds have seen significant inflows into money market funds, with emerging and developed markets both experiencing capital inflows [3][9] - In the equity fund segment, the Chinese stock market saw inflows of $28.6 billion, while the US stock market experienced inflows of $89.6 billion [3][9] Valuation Metrics - As of February 28, 2026, the valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is below that of the KOSPI200 and CAC40, but above the S&P 500, reaching a historical percentile of 93.3% [3][9] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the Shanghai Composite and the CSI 300 remains relatively high, indicating better allocation value compared to global markets [3][9] Economic Indicators - The US core PPI has shown a marginal increase, exceeding expectations at 3.6% year-on-year [3][9] - The Chinese economy is awaiting further confirmation of recovery signals, with key economic indicators such as PMI and retail sales growth under observation [3][9]