【申万固收|地方债周报】2月实际发行或超1万亿元——地方债周度跟踪20260214

Group 1 - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased this period, with a total issuance/net financing of 322.14 billion yuan/320.50 billion yuan, down from 579.67 billion yuan/578.93 billion yuan in the previous period [5] - The weighted average issuance term of local government bonds shortened to 15.48 years from 16.12 years in the previous period [5] - The issuance of new general bonds and special bonds has progressed faster than in the same period of 2024 and 2025, with cumulative issuance ratios of 24.7% and 15.8% respectively as of February 20, 2026 [5][7] Group 2 - The planned issuance of local government bonds for the first quarter of 2026 is 240.26 billion yuan, which is comparable to the actual issuance in the same period of 2025 [5][14] - Special new bonds issued this period totaled 25.2 billion yuan, with 33.3 billion yuan for replacing hidden debts and no issuance for repaying existing debts [5][12] - The yield spread between local government bonds and national bonds for 10Y and 30Y bonds slightly narrowed, with weekly turnover rate significantly increasing to 1.08% from 0.78% in the previous period [5][19] Group 3 - The current yield spread for 10Y and 30Y local government bonds is 19.01 BP and 21.40 BP respectively, which are at historical percentiles of 46.50% and 83.00% since 2023 [5][19] - The current value of the 10Y local government bond yield is 1.98%, while the 30Y yield is 2.48% [21] - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to continue to provide certain value for investors, particularly in the 20-30Y range [5][19]