【申万固收|信用周报】节前一周收益率下行为主，二永债表现亮眼——信用债市场周度跟踪（20260209-20260215）

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the decline in net supply of ordinary credit bonds and the ongoing negative net supply of perpetual bonds, indicating a tightening market environment [3][4][5]. Primary Market - In the current period (February 9, 2026 - February 15, 2026), the total issuance of ordinary credit bonds is 139 billion, with net financing of 36.3 billion, a significant decrease from the previous period's 358.7 billion and 256.5 billion respectively [3][4]. - The issuance of industrial bonds has decreased to 76.8 billion, with net financing dropping to 19.1 billion, while local government bonds have seen a reduction to 62.2 billion in issuance and a sharp decline in net financing to 17.2 billion [3][4]. - There has been no issuance of bank perpetual bonds for six consecutive weeks this year, with net financing for secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds being negative at -2 billion and -3 billion respectively [3][4]. Secondary Market - In the last week before the holiday, credit bond yields have generally declined, with credit spreads narrowing for most categories, particularly for perpetual bonds which outperformed ordinary credit bonds [3][4]. - The yield on high-grade local government bonds (10Y AAA) has improved by -10.6 basis points, while the 7Y bank perpetual bonds showed a yield decrease of over 5 basis points across all ratings [3][4]. - The trading volume for ordinary credit bonds and bank perpetual bonds has decreased, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [9]. Credit Strategy - The article suggests that the core issue for the bond market remains the diversion of funds to the stock market, emphasizing the importance of interest rate arbitrage and coupon value in credit bonds [3][4]. - The current bond market is characterized by a pessimistic expectation correction, with a potential shift towards a phase of spread compression, although overall space for further compression is limited [3][4]. - It is recommended to focus on high-grade ordinary credit bonds with maturities of 2 years or less, weak-rated local government bonds with maturities of 3 years or less, and high-grade insurance subordinated bonds with maturities of 3-5 years for investment opportunities [3][4].