欧美金融条件边际恶化，美国信用利差飙升——海外周报第129期

Economic Data and Events - In the past week, US housing prices remained flat, while consumer confidence and inflation exceeded expectations. The S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index showed a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, aligning with expectations and previous values. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for February was reported at 91.2, significantly above the expected 87 and previous value of 89. The January PPI year-on-year was 2.9%, better than the expected 2.6% but lower than the previous 3% [11][12]. - In the Eurozone, economic sentiment was below expectations, with the February Economic Sentiment Index at 98.3, lower than the expected 99.8 and previous value of 99.3 [11]. - Japan's retail sales and inflation also exceeded expectations, with January retail sales up 1.8% year-on-year, compared to an expected 0.1% and a previous value of -0.9%. The Tokyo Core CPI for February was reported at 1.8%, above the expected 1.7% and previous value of 2% [11]. Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US Economic Activity Index (WEI) showed an upward trend, with a value of 2.65% for the week ending February 21, compared to 2.89% the previous week. The four-week moving average was 2.6% [15]. - The German Economic Activity Index (WAI) remained stable at 0.05% for the week ending February 22, with a four-week moving average of 0.05% [15]. Demand - The US Redbook Commercial Retail Sales growth rate showed a marginal decline, with a year-on-year increase of 6.7% for the week ending February 20, down from 7.2% the previous week. The four-week moving average was 6.78% [19]. - In the real estate sector, US mortgage rates decreased, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 5.98% as of February 26, down from 6.01% the previous week. Mortgage application numbers showed a slight increase, with the MBA Market Composite Index at 340.2, reflecting a 0.4% week-on-week change [21]. Employment - Initial jobless claims and continuing claims for unemployment benefits were better than expected. Initial claims rose to 212,000 for the week ending February 26, compared to an expected 215,000 and a previous value of 208,000. Continuing claims decreased from 1.864 million to 1.833 million, against an expected 1.858 million [26]. - The number of job vacancies remained stable, with the Indeed Job Vacancy Index at 104.47 as of February 20, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.45% [30]. Prices - Commodity prices rebounded, with the RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index showing a week-on-week increase of 0.5% as of February 27. US gasoline prices continued to rise, reported at $2.80 per gallon for the week ending February 23, reflecting a week-on-week increase of approximately 0.2% [33]. Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Europe showed marginal deterioration. The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US was reported at 0.504 on February 27, down from 0.61 the previous day and 0.648 the week before. The Eurozone index also declined to 1.528 from 1.594 the previous week [37]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed marginal deterioration, with the euro to dollar three-month swap basis significantly declining to 0.38 basis points from 2.38 basis points the previous week [39]. - The spread-to-worst for high-yield dollar bonds surged to 284.0 basis points on February 27, widening from 271.8 basis points the previous day and 262.1 basis points the week before [40]. - The US-Japan yield spread narrowed to 185.2 basis points as of February 26, while the US-Europe spread remained stable at 127.3 basis points. The Italian-German yield spread continued to narrow, reported at 58.9 basis points [45]. Fiscal Data - As of February 26, cumulative federal spending in the US was approximately $1.3 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8%. This compares to $1.2 trillion in the same period last year, which had a growth rate of 8.1% [50].