张瑜：汇率叙事的思辨——兼论人民币汇率展望

Group 1 - The current mainstream narrative regarding exchange rates has significant flaws, including the misconception that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are directly linked to the dollar's performance, and the weak correlation between China-US policy interest rate differentials and exchange rates [5][10][11] - The recent appreciation of the RMB can be divided into two phases: the first phase was driven by policy support, while the second phase is primarily market-driven, with the central bank now aiming to curb excessive appreciation [5][15][16] - In the next 1-2 years, the dollar is expected to show a neutral to strong trend due to the relatively high economic growth rate in the US and the extreme limits of short positions in the dollar [5][24][25] Group 2 - A critical issue for the RMB's long-term revaluation hinges on whether China's midstream manufacturing sector can achieve a breakthrough in globalization, which could alter the structure of trade surpluses and settlement behaviors, thereby promoting RMB internationalization [5][8][27][32] - The analysis of the RMB's recent appreciation indicates that from April to November 2025, the appreciation was mainly policy-driven, while from late November onwards, it became market-driven, with the central bank actively managing the exchange rate to prevent excessive fluctuations [15][16][18] - The current market dynamics show a significant amount of unconverted dollar positions, which have accumulated since the pandemic, and the release of these positions is expected to influence the RMB's appreciation [18][19][20] Group 3 - The RMB's valuation can be assessed through two perspectives: the single exchange rate perspective based on China-US ten-year bond yield differentials, and the basket exchange rate perspective based on China's export share [22][23] - Historical trends indicate that significant shifts in the RMB's value often correspond with substantial deviations in pricing from fundamental values, although currently, no extreme deviations are observed [23][24] - The midstream manufacturing sector in China is showing signs of a structural transformation, which could lead to increased market capitalization in this area and the emergence of leading companies similar to "Moutai" in the future [27][30][31]