美伊冲突爆发，油价涨到位了吗

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, highlighting the potential implications for global oil supply and prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the impact on Iranian oil production [3][4][5]. Group 1: Event Overview - On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a coordinated military strike against Iran, targeting key leadership and military facilities, resulting in the deaths of several high-ranking officials [3]. - Iran responded with unlimited retaliation, targeting US and Israeli assets in the region, including missile strikes on military bases and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for global oil transport [4][5]. Group 2: Oil Price Impact - The conflict's impact on oil supply is primarily due to the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which sees daily transport of approximately 20 million barrels of oil and oil products [9]. - The blockade could create a supply gap of over 10 million barrels per day, significantly affecting global oil markets, as alternative routes are limited [9][11]. - Insurance costs for shipping through the Strait have surged, with war risk premiums expected to rise sharply, reflecting market concerns over the escalating conflict [12]. Group 3: Future Scenarios for Oil Prices - Three potential scenarios for future oil prices are outlined: 1. Venezuela Model: A US-supported regime change in Iran leads to the lifting of the blockade and a quick return to normal oil exports, resulting in a temporary spike in oil prices followed by a decline [15]. 2. Afghanistan Model: Continued confrontation leads to a prolonged blockade, keeping oil prices above $100 per barrel due to sustained supply shortages [16]. 3. Iraq Model: A weak government in Iran results in internal turmoil and significant drops in oil production, causing instability in oil supply and prices [17]. Group 4: Geopolitical Reactions - China has expressed concern over the military actions, calling for respect for Iran's sovereignty and urging for dialogue to maintain regional stability [5]. - Russia condemned the attacks as premeditated aggression and called for an immediate ceasefire [5]. - European nations, including the UK and France, have shown limited support for the US-Israel actions while urging for de-escalation and dialogue [6][7].