全球资本市场面临两大不确定性，影响几何，如何找寻相对确定性？｜资本市场

Group 1 - The core uncertainty in the global capital market for 2026 is the unclear path of AI transformation and the uncertain outcomes of the U.S. midterm elections, which will have multidimensional impacts on the market [2] Group 2 - AI capital expenditure is unprecedented, but there are critical contradictions in its commercialization, as highlighted by BlackRock's report indicating a mismatch between computing power investment and returns [4] - Morgan Stanley raises concerns about the "scale wall," questioning whether a tenfold increase in computing power will lead to a non-linear leap in intelligence, which could trigger valuation corrections if technical bottlenecks are encountered [4] - Short-term impacts include increased volatility, with AI hardware stocks at historical high valuations; if applications do not meet expectations or energy bottlenecks arise, sector adjustments may occur [4] - Long-term structural differentiation is anticipated, with investment focus shifting from hardware to infrastructure such as power, liquid cooling, and domestic computing power, expanding into AI-enabled sectors like finance, healthcare, and industry [4] - The need to identify "winners" that can capture AI benefits while being cautious of "pseudo-diversification" traps is emphasized [4] Group 3 - The outcome of the U.S. midterm elections could lead to significant policy direction changes, particularly in trade and tariffs, with a 20% chance of the Republican Party winning the House of Representatives, potentially altering U.S.-China tariff strategies [6] - If the Democratic Party wins, trade tensions may ease, impacting fiscal policies, regulatory frameworks, and AI antitrust legislation [6] - Market implications include fluctuations in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, with policy uncertainties likely to increase term premiums and upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields [6] - Regulatory tightening on tech stocks related to AI could exacerbate valuation pressures, while ongoing geopolitical tensions may sustain defense spending and favor energy infrastructure [6] Group 4 - The restructuring of global capital flows is noted, with emerging markets benefiting from a weak dollar cycle, directing funds towards more favorably valued Asian markets such as A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and Korean stocks [8] - The potential for renminbi appreciation is highlighted, with high-value exports enhancing exchange rate elasticity, projecting the USD/CNY exchange rate to fluctuate between 6.5 and 6.9 [8] - Opportunity areas include AI applications in healthcare and automation, resource commodities like copper, lithium, and rare earths, as well as power infrastructure and emerging market dividend assets [8] - Risks to monitor include corrections in high-valued U.S. tech stocks and potential policy shifts in the U.S. impacting supply chains [8] - In the context of ongoing geopolitical conflicts and intensified great power competition, de-dollarization is emerging as a trend, with gold remaining a key investment target [8] - Despite uncertainties in AI transformation, essential resources like computing power, electricity, copper, and aluminum are in demand, suggesting investment opportunities in these areas [8]