商品价格普遍上涨——全球经济观察2026年第2期【陈兴团队•华福宏观】

Global Asset Price Performance - Commodity prices have generally increased, driven by geopolitical risks between the US and Iran, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices rising by 3.8% and 4.9% respectively, and gold prices increasing by 3.3% [2] - Global stock markets showed mixed results, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices declining by 0.4%, 1.3%, and 1% respectively [2] - In the bond market, yields in major overseas markets mostly declined, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling by 11 basis points compared to the previous week [2] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.1%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.5% against the US dollar [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve is advancing a "deregulation" agenda, proposing reforms to the banking regulatory framework, including raising asset thresholds for community banks and revising anti-money laundering reporting standards [4] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is maintaining its policy interest rates unchanged, with President Lagarde expecting inflation to stabilize at the 2% target in the medium term [4] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) hinted at a possible interest rate hike in March or April if wage negotiations yield higher-than-expected results [4] US Mortgage Rates and Housing Market - The 30-year mortgage rate in the US has fallen below 6% for the first time since September 2022, potentially reviving housing demand [7] - Year-over-year growth rates for home prices have declined, with the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, FHFA Home Price Index, and Freddie Mac Home Price Index recording decreases of 1.3%, 1.8%, and 0% respectively [7] - Inflation remains sticky, with the US December PPI showing a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year rate holding steady at 3% [7] Economic Dynamics in Other Regions - Economic confidence in Europe has decreased, with both the EU and Eurozone economic sentiment indices dropping by 1 point to 98.3, below the long-term average [12] - The UK private credit giant Market Financial Solutions (MFS) has entered bankruptcy proceedings due to allegations of fraud and asset double-pledging, raising concerns about the fragility of the private credit market [12]