IEEPA关税被推翻——全球经济观察2026年第1期【陈兴团队•华福宏观】

Global Asset Price Performance - The US dollar index has rebounded, with major global stock markets mostly rising; the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices increased by 1.1%, 0.3%, and 1.5% respectively [2] - In the bond market, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points, while German and Japanese 10-year government bond yields fell by 4 basis points and 9.5 basis points respectively [2] - Commodity prices saw an increase, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil rising by 5.8% and 7.6% respectively, and London gold prices increasing by 1.4% [2] - The US dollar index increased by 0.9% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Inflation concerns have re-emerged as a focus for the Federal Reserve, with the January 2026 FOMC meeting minutes showing significant disagreement among decision-makers regarding interest rate direction [4] - The minutes indicated a discussion on the possibility of rate hikes if inflation remains above target levels, reflecting renewed attention to inflation risks [4] - The Bank of Japan's governor met with the Prime Minister to discuss economic and monetary conditions, but no specific monetary policy requests were made [4] Economic Dynamics in Other Regions - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory, with the February composite PMI rising to 51.9% and the manufacturing PMI reaching 50.8%, driven by a strong recovery in Germany [14] - Japan's economy showed weak recovery, with Q4 2025 GDP growing by 0.1%, primarily driven by personal consumption, although growth momentum remains insufficient [14] - Japan's core CPI growth fell to 2% in January, marking a two-year low, influenced by government fuel subsidies and base effects from last year's food price surge [14]