政策持续引爆独立储能江湖｜独家

Core Viewpoint - The independent energy storage sector is entering a period of explosive growth due to policy changes and market dynamics, with independent storage expected to dominate new electrochemical storage applications in China by 2025 [2][3]. Policy Impact - The cancellation of mandatory energy storage requirements has led to independent storage accounting for 61% of new installations by mid-2025, with a projected cumulative operational capacity of 42.9 GW, representing 56.6% of total electrochemical storage [2]. - A new policy effective January 27, 2026, will incorporate independent storage into the generation-side capacity pricing mechanism, potentially enhancing investment value and growth trajectories for independent storage projects [2][3]. Revenue Mechanisms - The strategic significance of the new capacity pricing mechanism lies in institutionalizing revenue sources linked to "capacity contribution," providing more stable income and clearer accounting standards for independent storage [3]. - Capacity compensation and peak-valley arbitrage are identified as the primary revenue sources for independent storage projects, accounting for approximately 30% and 65% of total income, respectively [8]. Regional Policy Variations - Various provinces have implemented distinct capacity pricing compensation mechanisms, including reliable capacity compensation (Gansu, Ningxia), capacity pricing mechanisms (Hubei, Hebei), and discharge volume compensation (Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang) [8][9]. - The compensation standards vary significantly across provinces, with Gansu's capacity pricing set to reach 330 yuan/kW·year by 2026, while other provinces like Ningxia and Hebei have lower standards [9][10]. Investment Viability - Independent storage projects in regions with capacity compensation, such as Inner Mongolia, show higher investment viability, with projected internal rates of return (IRR) of 7.3% to 9.0% based on different compensation scenarios [10][12]. - Gansu, Xinjiang, and Hebei are also expected to achieve IRR of 5% or higher due to favorable capacity pricing and arbitrage opportunities [12][21]. Future Trends - The independent storage sector is anticipated to transition into a long-duration storage era, driven by the increasing share of renewable energy in the energy mix, necessitating storage solutions with longer durations [22][23]. - By 2025, it is projected that long-duration storage (4 hours or more) will account for 21% of the market, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [23]. Technological Considerations - The industry is at a critical juncture for technological advancements, with various storage technologies like pumped hydro, compressed air, and liquid flow batteries being evaluated for their suitability in long-duration applications [24][25]. - The focus on safety, cost, scalability, and environmental sustainability will be crucial for the successful deployment of long-duration storage technologies [24].