怎么看新能源高占比与负电价

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of the "proportion of renewable energy generation" in China's power system, highlighting the need for enhanced grid capacity and flexibility to accommodate rising renewable energy output [3][10]. Group 1: Investment Trends - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, investment in the power grid has significantly increased, not merely as a return to infrastructure cycles but as a response to the explosive growth of renewable energy sources in recent years [3]. - The investment in power generation has outpaced that in the grid, leading to a mismatch where renewable energy generation is high, but transmission and utilization remain inadequate [3]. Group 2: Renewable Energy Generation Proportion - The "proportion of renewable energy generation" refers to the share of renewable energy in the total industrial power generation, rather than the installed capacity [6]. - By 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of wind and solar power in China is expected to approach 50%, but their actual generation will only account for about 17% of total power generation, with thermal power remaining the backbone of the power system [6][8]. - According to the National Energy Administration, renewable energy generation is projected to reach 3.99 trillion kWh by 2025, accounting for approximately 38% of total generation, with wind and solar contributing around 22% [8]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration have set clear targets for renewable energy generation, aiming for over 20% by 2027 and around 30% by 2030 [8][10]. - These targets indicate significant room for improvement in the proportion of renewable energy generation in the coming years [8]. Group 4: System Balancing Challenges - The article discusses the critical need to monitor the proportion of renewable energy generation as it directly impacts the operational pressure and complexity of the power system [10]. - The core principle of power system operation is instantaneous balance, where generation must equal consumption. As renewable energy increases, the traditional balance dominated by thermal power is disrupted, leading to potential operational challenges [10]. Group 5: Implications of Excess Renewable Generation - If the proportion of renewable energy generation exceeds the system's adjustable capacity, it creates challenges not only in generation but also in demand management, potentially leading to "negative pricing" in more market-oriented regions [15][20]. - Negative pricing occurs when supply significantly exceeds demand, forcing prices to drop below zero to clear the market, highlighting the system's inability to adjust effectively [21][23]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The current cycle of grid investment is crucial as electricity demand growth slows while renewable capacity surges, potentially leading to increased pressure on the system if regulatory and infrastructural upgrades do not keep pace [24]. - The focus of current policies is not to suppress renewable energy but to enhance the efficiency of resource allocation and system flexibility, aiming to rebuild a new power system capable of supporting a higher proportion of renewable energy in the future [24].