中东局势动荡，原油系商品继续大涨：申万期货早间评论-20260303

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, have led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, especially oil and methanol, indicating potential investment opportunities and risks in these sectors [1][2][5]. Group 1: Oil Market - Oil prices surged, with SC night trading up by 10.94%, following military actions between the US, Israel, and Iran, which included Iran's missile strikes on US military bases [2][11]. - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in oil tankers' navigation speeds dropping to zero, indicating a halt in shipping activities in the region [2][12]. - Major shipping companies, such as Maersk, have suspended operations through the Strait, further impacting oil supply chains [2][12]. Group 2: Methanol Market - Methanol prices increased by 5.47%, supported by stable operations in domestic coal-to-olefins (CTO) and methanol-to-olefins (MTO) facilities, with an average operating rate of 80.88% [3][13]. - As of February 26, methanol production facilities had an operating load of 78.24%, a slight decrease from the previous period but a 5.13% increase year-on-year [3][13]. - Coastal methanol inventories rose to 1.3987 million tons, reflecting a 0.77% increase from February 12 and a 35.14% increase year-on-year, indicating a stable supply despite geopolitical tensions [3][13]. Group 3: Financial Market Insights - The stock indices showed resilience, with major indices recovering from initial declines due to geopolitical fears, suggesting a shift from expectation-driven to profit-driven market dynamics [9]. - The bond market saw a general increase, with the 10-year treasury yield dropping to 1.79%, influenced by the ongoing geopolitical tensions and a shift towards risk aversion [10]. - The market is expected to focus on high-performing sectors as companies begin to disclose annual and quarterly reports, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies [9]. Group 4: Geopolitical Impact on Commodities - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is expected to influence various commodities, with potential supply chain disruptions and increased costs for raw materials like iron ore and coal due to heightened geopolitical risks [24][25]. - The situation may lead to increased shipping costs and affect the pricing of commodities, particularly those reliant on Middle Eastern supply routes [24][25]. - The overall sentiment in the commodity markets is likely to remain volatile as geopolitical developments unfold, impacting investment strategies across sectors [31].