中金 | 春节消费新观察：当“反向过年”遇上“下沉消费”

Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival consumption market shows a significant recovery and innovation, driven by an extended holiday period, with a notable increase in consumer spending across various sectors [2][4][6] Group 1: Consumption Trends - The extended Spring Festival holiday led to a 8.6% increase in daily sales for key retail and catering enterprises compared to the same period in 2025 [2][4] - The "reverse New Year" trend emerged, with more young people choosing to travel during the holiday, contributing to a 4.5% increase in domestic travel consumption [5][6] - Dining consumption saw a recovery, with a 105% increase in reservations for New Year's Eve dinners compared to the previous year [6][7] Group 2: Key Consumption Characteristics - The food and beverage sector is characterized by health consciousness, cost-effectiveness, and new consumption patterns, with high-end products like Moutai seeing increased presence at family gatherings [3][8] - Gift-giving during the festival emphasized health and value, with dairy products and fruit gift boxes being popular in high-tier cities, while health foods like oatmeal gained traction in lower-tier cities [3][11] - Supermarkets adapted to festive demands by enhancing product offerings and creating festive shopping experiences, with tea and snack stores thriving in county-level markets [12][18] Group 3: Regional Insights - In Tianjin, key monitored retail enterprises achieved a sales total of 1.84 billion yuan during the first five days of the holiday, marking a 10.3% year-on-year increase [7] - In Chengdu, the holiday consumption market showed stable growth, with key monitored commercial areas seeing a 4.1% increase in sales [7] - In Sanya, duty-free sales reached 970 million yuan in the first four days of the holiday, reflecting a 15.8% increase [4][7] Group 4: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly favoring health-oriented products, with a notable shift towards ready-to-eat meals and fresh ingredients for family gatherings [26][28] - The popularity of snack stores and tea beverage brands in lower-tier cities indicates a growing market for cost-effective and trendy products [30][32] - The trend of gifting has shifted towards healthier options, with health gift boxes becoming more popular than traditional alcohol gifts [26][28]