中金 • 全球研究 | 应对评级预警，借力Danantara谋增长

Macro Economic Outlook - Indonesia's GDP growth accelerated to 5.39% in Q4 2025, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate, leading to an annual growth rate of 5.11% for the year [3][10] - Strong household consumption, improved labor conditions, stable fixed asset investment, and resilient manufacturing are the main drivers, while mining is the only sector in contraction [3][10] - The Indonesian central bank (BI) forecasts a GDP growth of 5.3% for 2026, supported by fiscal measures and Danantara funding, provided external risks remain manageable and the Indonesian rupiah stabilizes [3][10] Risks and Warnings - MSCI and Moody's issued warnings regarding governance, liquidity, and policy predictability, causing volatility in the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) [4][20] - Moody's downgraded Indonesia's credit outlook to negative, citing concerns over governance and fiscal policy predictability, which could hinder foreign direct investment [4][20] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The 2026 fiscal and monetary policies aim to support growth while adhering to a 3% budget deficit limit, with targeted spending in housing, healthcare, education, and infrastructure [5][31] - The BI is expected to maintain interest rates in the short term, with potential cuts of 75 to 100 basis points in 2026 if the rupiah remains stable and inflation returns to the target range of 1.5% to 3.5% [5][32] Danantara's Role in Growth - The Danantara fund plans to deploy up to $14 billion in 2026, focusing on renewable energy, digital infrastructure, healthcare, food security, and downstream projects [6][34] - Six major downstream projects worth $7 billion were launched in February 2026, marking the beginning of a broader $36.7 billion project pipeline [6][34] Capital Markets Performance - The JCI experienced an 8.4% decline year-to-date due to foreign sell-offs triggered by MSCI and Moody's warnings, but foreign outflows have slowed significantly in February [7][39] - The current valuation of the JCI is attractive, with a projected P/E ratio of 12.8 for 2026, indicating potential investment opportunities for long-term investors [7][39] Sector Allocation - Short-term defensive sectors include consumer staples, healthcare, and telecommunications, while financial services and utilities are expected to benefit from fiscal expansion and state-owned enterprise restructuring in the medium term [8][43] - Long-term structural growth is anticipated in the mining and energy sectors, driven by downstream processing and Danantara-led integration [8][44]