国泰海通证券研究·2026-02-26 13:59Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the new tariff policies initiated by the Trump administration, highlighting the significant increase in effective tariffs on imports, particularly from China, and the resulting shifts in global trade dynamics [6][7][9]. Tariff Analysis - As of November 2025, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. reached approximately 9.8%, the highest since 1946, marking a substantial increase from the average of 2.4% in 2023 and 2024, with a notable difference from the initially proposed high tariffs by Trump [6][9]. - China faces the highest effective tariff rate at 30.9%, which increased by over 20 percentage points compared to December 2024, while Mexico and Canada have significantly lower rates of 4.2% and 3.7% respectively [11][15]. - The actual tariff increases have been most pronounced for steel and aluminum products, with tariffs rising over 30 percentage points compared to the end of 2024 [20]. Trade Dynamics - Despite facing high tariffs, China's export position remains strong, maintaining a global export share of nearly 16% as of September 2025, while the U.S. and Germany saw slight declines in their export shares [23][24]. - The U.S. has seen a structural shift in its imports, with a notable decrease in imports from Asia, particularly China, and an increase from North America and Europe, with Mexico becoming the largest source of imports [30][32]. - The diversification of supply chains is evident, as the U.S. increases imports from countries like Vietnam, Mexico, and Ireland to offset the decline in imports from China [39][40]. Product-Specific Insights - The effective tariffs on high-dependency products are relatively lower, while products with lower import dependency face higher tariffs. For instance, aluminum and steel products have the highest tariffs, yet they account for a small portion of total U.S. imports [13][14]. - The tariff impacts have led to a significant reduction in U.S. imports from China across various categories, with the import share from China dropping from 21.4% in 2017 to 9.1% in 2025 [39][41].