国泰海通证券研究·2026-02-26 13:59Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's ban on lithium concentrate exports is expected to significantly disrupt global lithium supply in the short term, leading to a bullish outlook on lithium prices [1][2]. Supply Dynamics - Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all raw and lithium concentrate exports, aiming to enhance mineral regulation and accountability. Only companies with valid mining rights and approved processing plants will be eligible for exports, which will tighten the supply side of lithium significantly [2][3]. - In 2025, China is projected to import a total of 1.19 million tons of lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe, translating to a lithium carbonate production of 148,800 tons, highlighting Zimbabwe's substantial impact on global lithium carbonate supply [2]. Policy Continuity - Zimbabwe has consistently implemented policies to restrict the export of unprocessed lithium ore since 2022, with plans to ban lithium concentrate exports by January 2027, allowing only higher-value lithium sulfate exports. This strategy aims to retain lithium processing within the country [3]. - The government has begun inspections to ensure compliance with the ban on raw ore exports, indicating a commitment to enforcing these regulations [3]. Market Fundamentals - The lithium carbonate market remains strong, with inventory levels declining for five consecutive weeks as of early February 2026. The demand recovery post-Chinese New Year is expected to further reduce inventory levels, supporting a bullish price outlook for lithium carbonate [3]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is anticipated to grow rapidly in 2026, driven by the energy storage and electric vehicle sectors, while supply disruptions from key mining regions and changes in overseas supply are expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance [3].