国泰海通｜有色：白银：不可或缺的AI金属——白银行业深度专题

Core Viewpoint - Silver possesses both financial and commodity attributes, with its price direction primarily determined by financial factors while commodity attributes provide price elasticity [2] Group 1: Silver's Attributes and Market Dynamics - Silver's industrial demand has risen to nearly 60%, with emerging sectors like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence driving growth [1] - The global liquidity environment is loose, allowing silver to act as a safe-haven asset alongside gold, creating a strong correlation between the two [1] - Historical data shows that during periods of economic recovery or liquidity abundance, silver's industrial properties become more pronounced, often leading to greater price increases compared to gold [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The global silver supply is constrained, with independent silver mining capacity accounting for less than 30%, and production growth hampered by declining ore grades and stringent environmental policies [2] - The global silver supply is projected to grow slowly, with major production coming from by-products of copper, lead, and zinc mining, which constitutes over 70% of total silver output [2] - Since 2021, a persistent supply-demand gap has been noted, particularly driven by industrial demand in new technologies [3] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Expectations of continued Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar are likely to enhance silver's financial attributes, supporting a long-term supply gap that could drive prices higher [3] - Rising silver prices are expected to directly benefit mining companies, particularly those with high-grade silver resources [3]