中金 | 2026年两会前瞻：五大看点

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the key focus areas for the upcoming 2026 Two Sessions, highlighting the importance of economic growth, consumption stimulation, and the establishment of a unified national market as critical components for China's development strategy [2][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Policy Focus - The 2026 Two Sessions will review the draft of the 15th Five-Year Plan, which aims to achieve basic socialist modernization by 2035, marking a crucial transitional phase for the economy [3]. - The focus will be on building a modern industrial system and fostering new growth drivers, particularly in strategic emerging industries such as new energy, aerospace, and quantum technology [3]. - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 5.1%, slightly lower than the 5.3% target for 2025, with various provinces adjusting their targets accordingly [5][10]. Group 2: Consumption and Green Transition - Consumption is expected to become a more significant driver of economic growth, with policies aimed at enhancing consumer confidence and improving living standards [4]. - The article discusses the push for green transformation, noting that China leads globally in green investment, which is expected to continue supporting the manufacturing sector during the energy transition [4]. Group 3: Market Integration and Risk Management - The establishment of a unified national market is highlighted as a means to eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation, thereby enhancing resource allocation efficiency [6]. - The article mentions the need to stabilize the real estate market and manage local government debt risks, indicating a focus on sustainable development in these sectors [6]. Group 4: Anticipated Events and Market Performance - The article outlines the expected agenda for the Two Sessions, including government work reports and discussions on economic policies, which are likely to influence market sentiment [7][11]. - Historical data shows that the A-share market tends to perform positively around the time of the Two Sessions, with an average increase of 2.6% in the 20 trading days before and after the sessions [9].