如何解读对出口引擎的“认知偏差”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the divergence between intuition and data regarding China's export growth, attributing it to the impact of export prices and exchange rates on dollar-denominated export growth and global share [1][3]. Export Growth Analysis - China's export growth has been hindered by declining export prices and exchange rates, with only 2024 showing a year-on-year increase in dollar-denominated exports compared to global averages [1][3]. - From 2015 to 2019, China's global export share remained stable at around 13%, while from 2020 to the first three quarters of 2025, it fluctuated between 14% and 15% [1][3]. Factors Influencing Export Quantity Share - The quantity share of China's exports is expected to increase from 13.2% in 2019 to 17.0% by the first three quarters of 2025, driven by three main factors [3]: 1. Accelerated industrial upgrading in China, with a shift towards high-value-added products [4]. 2. Continuous decline in export product prices due to a "strong supply, weak demand" environment, with a cumulative price drop of 10.1% from 2023 to 2025 [4]. 3. Expansion into new markets through the Belt and Road Initiative, countering external shocks and diversifying export destinations [5]. Future Export Trends - The article predicts that China's export quantity share will continue to rise, supported by ongoing industrial transformation and limited short-term price increases [7]. - Factors such as the government's export tax policies and the linkage between domestic and foreign sales prices will restrict further significant declines in export prices [9]. Currency Exchange Rate Impact - The article highlights that the actual effective exchange rate of the yuan has decreased by 16.12% since March 2022, but a stable or appreciating yuan is expected in the future due to resilient export performance [12][13]. - The increasing use of the yuan in international trade financing and payments is anticipated to enhance its attractiveness, with the proportion of yuan settlements in trade expected to rise [13]. Long-term Export Share Projections - It is estimated that China's global export share will stabilize around 17% by 2030, indicating a potential increase of over 2 percentage points from current levels, suggesting continued resilience in export growth [14].