“黑天鹅之父”塔勒布最新谈当下最被低估的风险，透露个人有配置金属……

Core Viewpoint - The current environment is not suitable for storing wealth in US dollars due to increasing structural risks and instability across various sectors [5][6][26]. Group 1: Dollar and Gold - The US is gradually losing its status as a reserve currency, leading to a shift where people are converting their savings into gold instead of dollars [11][12]. - The trend of moving away from dollar savings is expected to continue until there is more clarity on fiscal policies and deficits [11][12]. - Gold prices have risen nearly 30% since the last discussion, reflecting structural changes rather than mere market sentiment [11]. Group 2: Tariff Policies - Tariff policies are seen as potentially smart tools, but their erratic execution creates uncertainty, discouraging long-term investments [13][14]. - The unpredictable nature of tariffs contributes to increasing inequality, which is detrimental in the long run [14]. Group 3: AI Investments - The current enthusiasm for AI companies may overlook the inherent instability and risks associated with technological advancements [15][16]. - Historical patterns suggest that early pioneers in industries do not always emerge as the ultimate winners, indicating potential pitfalls for current AI investments [15][16]. Group 4: Risk Management - The concept of tail risk is emphasized, with a warning that the market is underestimating the potential for significant downturns [22][26]. - The need for hedging against unpredictable downturns is crucial, as current market volatility does not adequately reflect the underlying risks [21][22]. Group 5: Geopolitical Risks - The escalating tensions between the US and Iran pose significant risks to oil prices, with historical precedents showing the unpredictability of such events [23][24]. - The current geopolitical landscape suggests that the Western world may not withstand another oil shock similar to the 1970s, raising concerns about inflation and economic stagnation [24][25]. Group 6: Investment Opportunities - The article suggests that, aside from tail risk hedging, investments in metals are advisable due to long-term structural changes driven by central banks accumulating gold [29][30].