自大萧条以来，美国迁出人数首次超过迁入人数

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in immigration to the United States due to the Trump administration's policies, which has started to impact the economy and may exacerbate the national debt crisis of $38.8 trillion [1][2]. Immigration Trends - The net international immigration to the U.S. peaked at 2.7 million in 2024 but dropped to 1.3 million last summer, with subsequent data indicating a negative net migration [1]. - Goldman Sachs reported an 80% drop in net immigration compared to historical averages due to recent immigration policies [1]. Economic Impact - The reduction in immigration is causing labor market disruptions and shrinking the taxpayer base, which could lead to increased fiscal deficits and weakened economic growth prospects [2][4]. - Deloitte's research indicates that a continued decline in immigration will exert pressure on labor supply, debt sustainability, and long-term economic growth [4]. Labor Market and Debt - Approximately 80% of immigrants (around 33 million) are of working age, constituting 19% of the U.S. labor force [4]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that an increase of 8.7 million immigrants over five years could boost GDP by 2.9% [4]. Fiscal Contributions of Immigrants - Immigrants contributed over $650 billion in taxes in 2023, with per capita contributions potentially exceeding those of native-born citizens [5]. - The Cato Institute found that immigrants contributed a total of $14.5 trillion in fiscal surplus from 1993 to 2023, with their tax payments significantly higher than the public benefits they receive [5]. Long-term Economic Benefits - The report emphasizes that the fiscal benefits of immigration often manifest over time, with the children of immigrants expected to contribute even more in taxes as their education and income levels rise [8]. - The decline in immigration could diminish the potential of this demographic as a "fiscal engine" for the country [8].