张瑜：进击的“中游”，来自供给力量的呐喊——战略看多中游制造系列一

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes that midstream manufacturing is a strategic and significant direction for China's manufacturing industry in the coming years, driven by technological advancements and global supply concerns [2]. Group 1: Three Stages of Chinese Manufacturing - From 2000 to 2015, the focus was on upstream manufacturing, benefiting from urbanization and industrialization, with urbanization rates increasing from 34.7% in 1999 to 57.33% in 2015, averaging an annual increase of 1.4% [4][23]. - From 2015 to 2021, the focus shifted to downstream manufacturing, driven by consumer upgrades, with the ratio of household wealth to GDP rising to 4.39 by 2021, comparable to the U.S. in the early 1990s [4][27]. - Starting from 2025, the focus is expected to be on midstream manufacturing, addressing global supply concerns amid demographic changes and technological revolutions [5][31]. Group 2: Capital Market Mapping - The capital market has shifted focus from upstream to downstream and now to midstream, with midstream companies expected to present diverse investment opportunities and long-term competitive advantages [14]. Group 3: Global Supply Concerns - The report identifies three types of anxieties contributing to global supply concerns: the "power" anxiety of superpowers like the U.S., the "security" anxiety of middle powers, and the "development" anxiety of emerging countries [8][39][50]. - These anxieties create a demand for resources and capital goods, enhancing China's bargaining power as a comprehensive supply country [9]. Group 4: Advantages of Midstream Manufacturing - China's midstream manufacturing benefits from a continuously improving industrial chain, with the Competitive Industrial Performance Index (CIP) score narrowing the gap with leading countries [10][57]. - The complexity of China's manufacturing is increasing, with a higher share of intermediate goods in exports, rising from 38.7% in 2000 to 47.5% by 2025 [10][63]. - The capacity of China's manufacturing is both large and flexible, with significant growth in sectors like new energy vehicles, which saw production increase from 1.46 million units in 2020 to 16.52 million units by 2025 [10][67]. Group 5: Export Space Analysis - Despite reaching a trade surplus of $1.18 trillion in 2025, concerns about export limits are addressed by highlighting that broader export opportunities remain, including brand development and technological advancements [6][75]. - The report suggests that China's broad export share is still lower than that of the U.S., indicating potential for growth in overseas investments and exports [6][76].