国泰海通｜固收：冲突时刻，海外债利率如何走

Core Viewpoint - The impact of geopolitical conflicts on U.S. Treasury yields is primarily a "sentiment pulse" rather than a trend-driven factor, with inflation expectations and monetary policy being the true drivers of interest rates [1]. Summary by Sections Historical Context - Historical data indicates that localized wars typically affect bond markets for only a few weeks, with the Gulf War showing a total yield fluctuation of no more than ±20 basis points [1]. - During the Vietnam War, yields rose by a cumulative 380 basis points, driven by the "Great Inflation" era and monetary instability [1]. Recent Market Movements - As of February, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased by approximately 28 basis points, reaching a new low of 3.95% [2]. - This decline is driven by four main factors: the stalemate in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, rising tensions in the Middle East, weak macroeconomic fundamentals, and the relative attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries compared to German and Japanese bonds [2]. Future Outlook - Short-term support for U.S. Treasuries remains due to ongoing reassessment of rate cut expectations and strong credit markets [2]. - However, the primary risk has shifted from geopolitical events to energy price revaluation, with oil prices surging over 13% following military actions in the Middle East, which could reignite inflation expectations and exert upward pressure on Treasury yields [2].