国泰海通｜交运：节后票价上行持续，地缘油价逆向时机——2026年“春运”系列报告之（五）

Group 1: Core Insights - The demand for air travel during the 2026 Spring Festival is robust, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in overall passenger flow as of March 1, driven by significant growth in rail and air travel [1] - The airline industry is expected to see improved profitability in Q1 2026, with domestic ticket prices rising approximately 4-5% year-on-year during the Spring Festival period [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to increased oil prices, but this does not alter the long-term value and growth logic of airlines, presenting a unique opportunity for reverse investment strategies [3] Group 2: Passenger Flow Analysis - Air travel passenger flow increased by 5.1% before the festival, 7.6% during the festival, and further accelerated to 9.8% in the first six days after the festival, indicating a strong recovery in business and public travel [1] - The average daily passenger flights increased by over 5% year-on-year in the 28 days leading up to the Spring Festival, with an estimated rise in seat occupancy rates by over 2 percentage points [1] Group 3: Ticket Pricing Trends - Ticket prices during the Spring Festival saw a significant increase, with mid-festival prices rising nearly 8% year-on-year, exceeding industry expectations [2] - The airline industry is expected to maintain a positive trend in ticket prices post-festival, supported by high occupancy rates and a low base effect from previous years [2] Group 4: Oil Price Impact - The rise in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions is expected to have a limited impact on airline profitability, as the demand-supply dynamics in the Chinese aviation market remain favorable [3] - The long-term growth logic of the airline industry remains intact, with expectations of a "super cycle" driven by sustained demand growth and market price liberalization [3]