国泰海通证券研究·2026-03-03 14:08Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the need for a strategic asset allocation framework in response to the accelerating global order reconstruction and deteriorating geopolitical situation, highlighting safety as a scarce resource and gold as a tangible means to combat uncertainty. It recommends overweighting AH stocks, gold, crude oil, and industrial commodities in March [1]. Group 1: Equity Allocation - The recommended equity allocation weight for March 2026 is 45.00%, with an overweight in A-shares (10.00%) and H-shares (10.00%), while maintaining standard weights for US stocks (15.00%), European stocks (5.00%), and Japanese stocks (5.00%). Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, including expected expansion of the broad deficit and more proactive economic policies [2]. Group 2: Bond Allocation - The suggested bond allocation weight for March 2026 is 35.00%, including long-term government bonds (7.50%), short-term government bonds (7.50%), long-term US Treasuries (10.00%), and short-term US Treasuries (10.00%). Structural monetary policy is expected to strengthen the allocation to government bonds, with a trend of rising risk appetite and potential for enhanced debt purchasing willingness [3]. Group 3: Commodity Allocation - The recommended commodity allocation weight for March 2026 is 20.00%, with an overweight in gold (10.00%), crude oil (5.00%), and industrial commodities (5.00%). The report suggests that the accelerating global order reconstruction warrants an overweight in gold as a safeguard against uncertainty, while the deteriorating geopolitical situation in the Middle East supports an overweight in crude oil [4].