国内高频 | 人流出行延续高位(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观·2026-03-03 16:04

Group 1: Industrial Production Tracking - The industrial production shows a mixed performance, with a slight recovery in construction activity. The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.1% week-on-week and rose by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 2.3% after the holiday [2] - Steel apparent consumption decreased by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to -6.4% compared to the week before the Spring Festival, while steel social inventory increased significantly by 9.6% [2] - In the petrochemical sector, the operating rate of soda ash decreased by 0.3% week-on-week and fell by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to -3.0%, while the PTA operating rate increased by 0.2% week-on-week and rose by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to -5% [14] - The construction industry saw a marginal recovery in cement production and demand, with the national grinding operating rate decreasing by 3.8% week-on-week but increasing by 3.6 percentage points year-on-year to 3.4% [26] Group 2: Demand Tracking - The transaction volume in the real estate market showed improvement, particularly in second-tier cities, with the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities increasing year-on-year to 106.8% [50] - The average transaction area in first-tier cities rose by 47.9% year-on-year, while second and third-tier cities saw even larger increases of 137.8% and 97.4% respectively [50] - Freight volume and port cargo throughput related to domestic demand both increased year-on-year, with railway freight volume rising by 2.1 percentage points to 3.1% and highway truck traffic increasing by 20.2 percentage points to 26% [62] - The nationwide migration scale index increased by 36.8 percentage points year-on-year to 52.7%, indicating a rise in travel intensity [74] Group 3: Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices generally declined, with egg and vegetable prices both decreasing by 3.4% week-on-week, while fruit prices remained stable [104] - The industrial product price index decreased by 0.5% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index falling by 1.1% and the metal price index rising by 0.4% [116]

国内高频 | 人流出行延续高位(申万宏观·赵伟团队) - Reportify