中金：北上楼市拐点渐行渐近

Core Viewpoint - The current adjustment in the real estate cycle has lasted over four years, and with recent changes in supply and policy, it is believed that housing prices in Beijing and Shanghai are likely to stabilize this year, indicating a gradual beta market for the real estate sector [1][34]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The core reason for the current real estate cycle adjustment is inventory, particularly the inventory of second-hand homes, which directly affects marginal pricing [2][7]. - The downward trend in the number of second-hand homes listed for sale in Beijing and Shanghai since the second half of 2025 has led to a return to a reasonable inventory cycle, suggesting that housing prices may stabilize [2][16]. - The recent decline in listing volumes is attributed to a decrease in the willingness to sell rather than an acceleration in transactions, indicating a natural bottoming out of social inventory [21][34]. Group 2: Policy Changes - The policy environment has shifted to emphasize "de-inventory," with potential for unexpected progress in housing stockpiling, such as the pilot program for second-hand home stockpiling in Shanghai [2][23]. - Adjustments to purchase restrictions in Beijing and Shanghai, although moderate, may act as catalysts for positive price expectations in the context of stabilizing social inventory [2][23]. Group 3: Inventory Dynamics - The inventory level is a key variable in predicting housing price trends, with the second-hand home inventory being particularly critical [8][12]. - The current high inventory issue is more complex than in previous cycles, with both second-hand and new homes contributing to the problem [10][12]. - The second-hand home inventory is expected to determine marginal pricing, and monitoring the inventory cycle is essential for understanding market dynamics [12][34]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider three types of investment strategies: 1) allocate to stable assets with clear beta characteristics; 2) invest in structurally growing real estate development companies with strong product capabilities and high-quality inventory; 3) identify opportunities in private enterprises that may experience significant revaluation due to oversold valuations [1][35]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The real estate sector is expected to transition from a policy-driven environment to a beta market, with core city housing prices potentially leading to a gradual recovery in the sector [36][34]. - The average discount of market value to revalued net asset value (RNAV) for key covered real estate companies is currently 37%, indicating potential for significant valuation recovery [36].