中金 | 3月行业配置：“成长+周期”双线联动

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to maintain a "steady progress" trend supported by global monetary order restructuring, AI application promotion, and domestic growth stabilization and reform, making it a favorable period for investment allocation [1] Industry Performance Summary 1) Energy and Basic Materials - "Price increase" commodities are supported by demand and performance certainty, with notable price increases in energy and non-ferrous metals, including a 8% rise in thermal coal, 3% in WTI crude oil, and 18% in lithium carbonate [2] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have driven up oil and metal prices, while OPEC+ announced an oil production increase plan for April to counteract upward price pressures [2] 2) Industrial Products - Global AI-related manufacturing investment is in an expansion phase, with strong domestic and international demand for construction machinery, evidenced by a 61% year-on-year increase in domestic excavator sales [3] - The domestic power battery installation volume was 42.0 GWh in January, showing a 57.2% month-on-month decline but an 8.4% year-on-year increase [3] 3) Consumer Goods - Domestic consumption is showing signs of improvement, with January sales of washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners increasing by 0.6%, decreasing by 2.4%, and increasing by 12.7% respectively [4] - The average purchase price of live pigs remained stable at 14 yuan/kg before the Spring Festival, with a projected national pig stock of 429.67 million heads by the end of 2025, an increase of 2.24 million heads from the previous year [4] 4) Technology - AI applications are continuously iterating, with significant increases in usage, as evidenced by a weekly usage of 4.12 trillion tokens for Chinese AI models, surpassing the U.S. [5] - The semiconductor industry remains robust, with global sales increasing by 37% year-on-year in January, and China's sales growing by 34% [5] 5) Financials - The A-share market is supported by a "steady progress" trend, with an average daily trading volume of 2.3 trillion yuan in February and a margin balance of 2.7 trillion yuan at the end of the month [6] - The insurance industry is projected to see a 7% year-on-year increase in premium income by 2025 [6] 6) Real Estate - Policy measures are promoting inventory reduction, with a 11% year-on-year increase in the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities in February [6] - The housing price index for new and second-hand homes in 70 major cities fell by 3% and 6% year-on-year respectively in January 2026 [6] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors benefiting from AI technology, such as cloud computing infrastructure, optical communication, energy storage, and semiconductors, while also considering cyclical opportunities in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and engineering machinery [6][7] - Emphasize long-term investment in high-dividend leading companies in sectors like white goods, oil and petrochemicals, and public utilities [6][7]