热点思考 | 全国“两会”如何跟踪？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The key agenda for the upcoming "Two Sessions" includes the review of core reports such as the government work report, plan and budget report, and the work report of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress [3][4][49] - Important news conferences during the "Two Sessions" will provide insights into policy deployments, with specific sessions scheduled for economic, diplomatic, and livelihood themes [3][4][11] - Discussions related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" will be a focal point, with the government work report mentioning its implementation and subsequent deliberations by representatives [3][12][50] Group 2 - The national GDP growth target for 2026 is expected to be set at around 5%, slightly lower than the 5.3% target for 2025, reflecting a pragmatic approach to economic work [4][14][51] - The CPI target for 2026 is likely to remain around 2%, aligning with the current economic pace and aiming for moderate inflation [5][19][52] Group 3 - Fiscal policy will focus on enhancing efficiency, with expectations of maintaining a deficit rate around 4% and increasing the scale of local government special bonds and long-term special bonds to 5.5 trillion yuan and 2 trillion yuan respectively [6][24][27] - Monetary policy is anticipated to maintain a moderately loose stance, emphasizing liquidity support and precise structural support, while also focusing on fiscal coordination and expectation management [6][33][39] - Expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption will remain a primary task, with various departments implementing measures to stimulate service consumption and activate private investment [7][45][53]