【环保】地缘政治冲突推升国际油气价格，持续重点推荐氢氨醇行业——碳中和领域动态追踪（一百七十五）（殷中枢/郝骞）

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated geopolitical risks in the Middle East, leading to increased international oil and gas prices due to various factors including heightened risk aversion [4]. Short-term Analysis - Traditional chemical product cost centers are rising, while the price advantage of green hydrogen and ammonia continues to expand. The geopolitical conflict is pushing international oil and gas prices into an upward trajectory, which in turn raises the costs of traditional synthetic methanol and ammonia. However, the costs of green hydrogen and ammonia are decoupled from international oil and gas prices, primarily influenced by domestic green electricity prices. The rising prices of traditional chemical products and the declining domestic green electricity prices are expected to narrow the cost gap between green and traditional hydrogen and ammonia products, enhancing the willingness and economic feasibility of substitution in downstream sectors such as fertilizers and shipping fuels, thus creating new demand and development space for the green hydrogen and ammonia industry [5]. Medium to Long-term Analysis - The geopolitical conflict reinforces the energy security narrative, positioning green hydrogen and ammonia as core elements of self-sufficiency. China's reliance on foreign oil remains high, projected to stay around 70% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The impact of geopolitical conflicts on international oil and gas prices will directly affect the supply chain costs and security of China's chemical industry. In this context, domestic policies are increasingly focused on building self-sufficiency in the energy and chemical industry chain. Green hydrogen and ammonia, utilizing domestic green electricity and biomass as core raw materials, have a high degree of domestic equipment and production localization, aligning with both energy security and dual carbon goals. This sector has become a key focus for policy support, being included in six major future industries and the establishment of a national low-carbon transition fund to cultivate new growth points in hydrogen energy and green fuels [6].