Deutsche Bank AG(US:DB) 财联社·2026-03-04 03:10Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical events typically do not trigger sustained market reactions, but exceptions occur when there are macro transmission channels affecting the market, as seen in the current situation in Iran [1] Group 1: Oil Price Impact - The S&P 500 index has historically retreated (over 15% decline) due to oil shocks, requiring at least one of three conditions to be met, none of which have been satisfied so far [1] - The three conditions include: a significant oil price surge of at least 50-100% sustained over several months, substantial macroeconomic damage leading to recession or severe slowdown, and a hawkish response from central banks to combat ensuing inflation [1][2] Group 2: Current Market Conditions - The current oil crisis appears relatively mild compared to past experiences, with significant risk aversion typically arising only when oil prices rise by at least 50% [2] - Despite the largest single-day oil price increase since 2022, it is not considered a once-in-a-generation volatility event, as similar fluctuations have occurred 55 times since 1990 [4] Group 3: Economic Resilience - Between 2023-2025, despite ongoing geopolitical turmoil, there has not been a significant market reaction due to the quick retraction of oil price surges and the resilience of economic data [6] - There has been no substantial deterioration in economic data, and any potential shifts in risk assets are expected to occur rapidly in response to data fluctuations [6] Group 4: Central Bank Response - There has not been a substantial repricing of the central banks' response functions, with market perceptions of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank viewed as tail risks rather than baseline scenarios [6][7] - The conditions that historically led to market crashes due to oil crises have not been met, including the absence of a 50% oil price increase, significant data deterioration, or market pricing in of rate hikes by major central banks [7][8]