数据点评 | 如何理解2月PMI下行？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The February PMI further declined, likely due to the long and late Spring Festival holiday imposing significant constraints on the supply side [3][9][45] Manufacturing PMI - The manufacturing PMI fell by 0.3 percentage points to 49% in February, influenced by the long Spring Festival holiday [3][9][45] - The actual PMI, excluding weather-related factors, dropped by 0.6 percentage points to 48.7% [9] - The production index decreased by 1 percentage point to 49.6%, while the new orders index fell by 0.6 percentage points to 48.6% [12][45] - The internal demand orders index declined by 0.3 percentage points to 49.1%, and the new export orders index decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 45% [12][45] Industry Analysis - The Spring Festival holiday caused widespread impacts across industries, with capital-intensive sectors experiencing significant declines in PMI [4][16][46] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs fell by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points to 51.5% and 49.8%, respectively [4][46] - Labor-intensive sectors like consumer goods manufacturing and high-energy-consuming industries maintained low PMIs of 48.8% and 47.8% [4][19][46] Non-Manufacturing PMI - The non-manufacturing PMI showed asymmetric effects from the Spring Festival, with the construction PMI continuing to decline while service sector PMIs improved [4][18][36] - The construction PMI fell by 0.6 percentage points to 48.2%, while the service PMI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7% [4][18][36] - Sectors related to consumer travel, such as accommodation and catering, had PMIs above 60%, indicating high prosperity [18][46] Future Outlook - With the resumption of work and production alongside increased domestic demand policies, the PMI may rebound, with a focus on marginal changes in domestic demand [5][22][47] - Despite short-term disruptions from the Spring Festival, expectations for manufacturing and construction have improved, with production activity indices rising [22][47] - The effectiveness of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption is gradually increasing, suggesting that domestic demand recovery may be more resilient than external demand [22][47] Regular Tracking - Manufacturing PMI continued to decline, with new orders and export orders indices also falling [28][30] - The service PMI saw a slight increase, but the new orders index decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 45.7% [34][36] - The construction PMI continued to decline, with the new orders index marginally increasing by 2.1 percentage points to 42.2% [38][40]